From MindWealth Coach Rohit:
I don’t think the Chinese will wait for much more than a couple of months before quelling the HK protests. Nearly a million HK residents marched in the rain today. China cannot lose face and they will worry that if this carries on for long it may give the mainland Chinese people ideas… and make them look weak. China may attempt to avoid this by replacing HK police with Chinese police and giving them more power or also by simply bringing in the tanks. The latter would mean that HK’s status as a financial center is under question, which is bad for China. It feels like they may be stuck between a rock and a hard place. But will “saving face” eventually dominate economic sense, I don’t have that answer yet? So post-mid-September I would be careful.
For the UK, October will be a fascinating and exciting month with the Brexit drama reaching its denouement. Elections on November 1 or on October 25-26 look likely. The Conservatives plus Brexit Party (performance depending on whether elections are before or after the actual Brexit) may win a historic majority given that Labor and Liberal Democrats are competing for the same votes now. Labour will get wiped out. Problems won’t end. People will call for Brexit to be reversed etc. At the borders, I think things will go much smoother than people expect. The old remain campaign is using no-deal as an excuse to campaign for essentially no Brexit – and get its energy up for an election- a good strategy but I would expect all other parties will be outwitted and many will vote for a low tax, fiscal spending Conservative Party that delivers Brexit. While all this is happening, Extinction Rebellion will also be on the streets of London fighting for climate change.
History before our eyes at all levels.
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MindWealth Staff | Feb 19, 2021